IOM Covid removing restrictions

[NoTailT]

31 minutes ago, John Wright said:

Why? One case? 

We have to start moving on. IoM can’t draw up the drawbridge and self isolate for ever. Covid won’t go away.

There are going to be odd cases crop up, even without travel. We haven’t got any live cases, but that’s detected cases, the risk of one case in Guernsey is no different to the risk of someone here not reporting symptoms, not going into isolation, not testing.

We can’t wait for vaccine. May never arrive. We can’t get herd immunity as we haven’t been exposed due to lock down.

We have learned much about protection and treatment. About keeping people and the NHS safe. So step by step. Have testing, track & trace in place. If there’s a huge increase in an area you’ve been to then test on arrival, seven days isolation, test again. Faster, more specific, assessment of risk.

You should know from my previous posts that isn't my thought track. I'm just trying to get my head around the execution of this and I wonder if any planning has been done - we know how poor DHSC is at that - around containing these outbreaks.

[John Wright]

49 minutes ago, NoTailT said:

You should know from my previous posts that isn't my thought track. I'm just trying to get my head around the execution of this and I wonder if any planning has been done - we know how poor DHSC is at that - around containing these outbreaks.

Apart from the Abbotswood cluster, and we don’t know the reasons - may not have been DHSC- they’ve done really well.

Never been to Guernsey. May give it a go.

Im waiting to see how it goes. Since last December I’ve been booked by Ferry to Bilbao, staying in Barcelona, then Ferry to Rome. Then home in reverse. Over 7 weeks. I’d be willing to spend 14 days in isolation at the end.

[doc.fixit]

Much prefer Jersey to Guernsey.

[Andy Onchan]

3 hours ago, John Wright said:

As long as Guernsey States picks up the loss. Aurigny loses £800,000 a month. That’s pre Covid.

In part, that's because they're using the wrong aircraft. Jets are nice to have. The Q400s win every time. I really don't understand why Aurigny thought it was a good idea to have jets or even 172s.

[woolley]

10 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said:

In part, that's because they're using the wrong aircraft. Jets are nice to have. The Q400s win every time. I really don't understand why Aurigny thought it was a good idea to have jets or even 172s.

Because it wasn't their money?

[Andy Onchan]

Just now, woolley said:

Because it wasn't their money?

Aye, that'll be it!

[The Dog's Dangly Bits]

3 hours ago, NoTailT said:

You should know from my previous posts that isn't my thought track. I'm just trying to get my head around the execution of this and I wonder if any planning has been done - we know how poor DHSC is at that - around containing these outbreaks.

How poor? Go on then, explain that one.

[piebaps]

DHSC doesn't contain anything. WE do.

We've heard the story of the guy who held a party at his house when he was positive. We've heard the story of the fella who was jailed for failing to self isolate.

It has been quite simple of you follow the rules. DHSC can't do anything about the ones who are stupid. I suppose we could lock everyone in a hotel somewhere but that didn't go down so well did it?

[Black Mirror]

23 hours ago, Debbie said:

I am taking bets for when we will see the next coronavirus case in the Isle of Man.

In Beijing they are having an outbreak that the authorities think originated at a market from frozen fish imported from outside China. Some city blocks there have been sealed. The border closure cannot be sustained indefinitely and, in any case, it may fail.

There is also the issue of what the IOM government will do about it, when it will happen. Full blown lockdown again? Have you heard of any plans from them?

Here is the crux of the matter: in the US, in the densely populated states of the west coast (New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania) where the pandemic already ran its course, heard immunity has kicked in and Covid-19 has almost vanished; while in the states that had had comparatively few cases so far, Covid-19 is on the rise unfortunately. Suppression of the virus comes at a cost, which one has to pay later. The graph below pictures the current situation in the US.

Manx government’s Covid response has been modelled on the UK; with adaptions to the island status, to be fair.

UK’s Covid response has been crudely political; with little consideration given to anything else than politics. Now that the minutes of SAGE meetings are in the open, finally, as the UK government had resisted such disclosure, we know that in late March those scientists had not advised a lockdown, not even closing down the riskiest activities such as pubs and hairdressers.

The latest scientific evidence points to the UK lockdown having made little difference to the spread and fatality of the virus. It only managed to delay it a bit in regions outside London. The differences that we see among countries are due to geography and to critical variations in susceptibility to Covid-19 among a small percentage of the population. To most people the virus does little more than nothing.

The Isle of Man managed to clear it only because of its isolation following the border closure. Of course the Manx government is giving itself a lot of credit for that, politicians being politicians. In reality, even if the border had stayed open, it would have not made such big difference. In the UK, overall the excess mortality outside care homes has been the one of a bad flu season, like 2018 for instance.

Hopefully, rationality will prevail. Only a few weeks ago I was despairing; but we have seen how things have improved lately on the island. The whole of the quay leading to Millennium Bridge was the scene of some kind of festival Thursday’s evening (before the rain). A lot of people have started realising what I have been saying and this will make it difficult to enforce another lockdown anyway.
 

[Cambon]

1 hour ago, Black Mirror said:

Manx government’s Covid response has been modelled on the UK; with adaptions to the island status, to be fair.

UK’s Covid response has been crudely political; with little consideration given to anything else than politics. Now that the minutes of SAGE meetings are in the open, finally, as the UK government had resisted such disclosure, we know that in late March those scientists had not advised a lockdown, not even closing down the riskiest activities such as pubs and hairdressers.

The latest scientific evidence points to the UK lockdown having made little difference to the spread and fatality of the virus. It only managed to delay it a bit in regions outside London. The differences that we see among countries are due to geography and to critical variations in susceptibility to Covid-19 among a small percentage of the population. To most people the virus does little more than nothing.

The Isle of Man managed to clear it only because of its isolation following the border closure. Of course the Manx government is giving itself a lot of credit for that, politicians being politicians. In reality, even if the border had stayed open, it would have not made such big difference. In the UK, overall the excess mortality outside care homes has been the one of a bad flu season, like 2018 for instance.

Hopefully, rationality will prevail. Only a few weeks ago I was despairing; but we have seen how things have improved lately on the island. The whole of the quay leading to Millennium Bridge was the scene of some kind of festival Thursday’s evening (before the rain). A lot of people have started realising what I have been saying and this will make it difficult to enforce another lockdown anyway.
 

So, the uk sent care home patients who were in hospital back to their care homes to free up hospital beds. Covid spread like wildfire through these care homes killing thousands. These are not in the uk Covid death figures. The uk death figures only take into account people who test positive first before dying. Until recently, the uk death figures only included people who died in hospital. The uk still is not testing enough people to do any good. Their track and trace is useless. They never closed the borders, or even do any tests on arrivals. Things are so bad in the uk, other countries are banning uk flights. New Zealand was reinfected by the uk.

And you think our system is based on theirs? You must live in a dream! 

[2112]

I see according to the Nations Propoganda Mouthpiece that HRH The Chief Minister has given an answer to Jason Moorhouse regarding the visitors from Jersey. They were visiting the island and a local care home. They were only alllowed to venture from the hotel to another place. It’s alleged that they had a meal out, of which they weren’t permitted. The police are investigating - horse, gate and bolted comes to mind! I doubt our local fuzz are going to insist on extradition should offences have been found to have been committed. One rule for visitors and another for Island Residents.

[Mr Newbie]

8 hours ago, John Wright said:

As long as Guernsey States picks up the loss. Aurigny loses £800,000 a month. That’s pre Covid.

Would there be a loss? It’s their airline. I would imagine it’s all about trying to kickstart tourism. 

[John Wright]

3 minutes ago, Mr Newbie said:

Would there be a loss? It’s their airline. I would imagine it’s all about trying to kickstart tourism. 

You’ve no idea what incentive HQ&Co might have offered.

You can imagine the convo.

Guernsey: each flight will lose us £500 if full and £5000 if empty

IoM: we’ll go halves

[Mr Newbie]

4 minutes ago, John Wright said:

You’ve no idea what incentive HQ&Co might have offered.

You can imagine the convo.

Guernsey: each flight will lose us £500 if full and £5000 if empty

IoM: well go halves

That’s a big assumption. I actually think the IOM would be the net loser anyway. Very few in Guernsey will want to come here and I think encouraging IOM people to fly somewhere like Guernsey totally undermines the pleas for people to go on a “staycation” here to boost the economy by giving them the option not to stay here at all. 

Edited June 26, 2020 by Mr Newbie

[TheTeapot]

I hope you've all had a skeet at this? https://covid19.gov.im/general-information/stay-responsible/

The image/pdf in the middle, that's the important bit. Lockdown remains an option. Pubs shut again with a 10+ cases 3 days in a row, full lockdown with 20.