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Election Predictions 2021


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3 hours ago, Ramseyboi said:

Wonder if this differentiates between or factors in good vs bad coverage?

eg are Boot and Josem getting high scores for being mentioned everywhere at the moment when in reality their reps are taking a kicking.

Not according to their model.  Boot is scrapping for last place with Mikey Lee in Peel and Josem is a distant third in East.  But I suspect they're putting in lots of fiddle factors to prevent a situation where all publicity isn't good publicity.  There may well still be an inbuilt bias where people with an existing big media presence are favoured - I can't explain Stu Peter's and Tim Glover's ridiculously high scores otherwise.

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12 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

Not according to their model.  Boot is scrapping for last place with Mikey Lee in Peel and Josem is a distant third in East.  But I suspect they're putting in lots of fiddle factors to prevent a situation where all publicity isn't good publicity.  There may well still be an inbuilt bias where people with an existing big media presence are favoured - I can't explain Stu Peter's and Tim Glover's ridiculously high scores otherwise.

Some shocks on the cards. Prediction of Kieran Hanifin ………………. the island will be well and truly screwed. Be careful for who you wish for!

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11 hours ago, 2112 said:

Some shocks on the cards. Prediction of Kieran Hanifin ………………. the island will be well and truly screwed. Be careful for who you wish for!

Now back into 2nd place behind Stu Peters! I actually think that SP has a good chance of being elected, not particularly because I consider him to be a good candidate, he struggles in my view to make it up to average, but many of the public vote for a name or somebody they think they know. You see it in the number of postmen who have got elected in the past. It is a case of oh I know him or his family and it is exactly the basis on which my in laws vote. Being the guy off Manx Radio I expect will garner a fair few of these votes. I also expect SP will have a better idea than many of how to say to the public what they want to hear to gather their votes even though that is not what he will necessarily believe etc. Getting elected is not about selling your ideas but getting the public to think their views are your views even if they are not. 

Edited by Lost Login
Edit as hit t rather than y when typing guy!
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39 minutes ago, Ham_N_Eggs said:

Just out of interest... why would the Island be screwed?

Sadly lots of the candidates are obsessing about climate change and the environment. Very 2D views and thinking. There is also a lot of social issues, some brought on by the politics of envy, spite and avarice. 
 

Reform is required in many areas but be careful how it’s done, or the island will rid itself of some of its wealth creators. 

Edited by 2112
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The worrying thing for me, with candidates standing on the climate change card, is that whilst we should all be aware of the problem and potential solutions, it wouldn’t matter if the population of the island spend 24/7 farting fresh air. Nothing we do here will make the slightest bit of difference and we shouldn’t be spending money on schemes, while people are homeless and/or hungry.

Edited by Lightening McQueen
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