Roger Mexico Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 I presume Ashford is 23/1 on (ie bet 23 to get 1). But whatever system they are using it can't be much use if thinks that Kevin the Oliphant is as likely to win as Peake is. While I would love it if Oliphant-Smith managed to displace Ashford say, because I wouldn't stop laughing, I don't think it's very likely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleepyJoe Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 This general election campaign appears at it's most lack lustre in Douglas North With some competition from Castletown, Arbory & Malew 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banker Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 27 minutes ago, SleepyJoe said: This general election campaign appears at it's most lack lustre in Douglas North With some competition from Castletown, Arbory & Malew Agree, Ralph has been very quiet & needs to get his message out more to avoid an upset Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleepyJoe Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 All the conservatives need to get together and publish their proposed programme for government, failing to do so creates a position of farce & leaves the new government without a genuine mandate from the electorate [Progressives too!] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 The TwentyFourKeys website is currently refusing to give any predictions for ACM with the 'explanation': "We are aware of Castletown not being visible. This is because we need to have an altered model specifically for that race due to its different characteristics". I assume this means that they had to put in all sorts of fiddle factors to cope with His Majesty and his last minute withdrawal meant that they've had to undo everything. Or they're just sat there howling in despair at the choice available, along with the ACM electorate. (They've also forgotten to add Simon Mann to the Ramsey stramash) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramseyboi Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 Current post on iom news and politics by Andy Corrie ” ——The Mysterious Case of 24 Keys——- ———From newbie Pollsters to——— -unregulated off island betting site.— AKA TOTAL SCAM. These guys appear out of nowhere with talk of election result predicting algorithms and further lending credibility by doing interviews with GEF. You’ve probably seen their charts and heard the mumbo jumbo about algorithms. Election candidates themselves start liking and sharing an commenting on it. Manx Groups (like Isle of Man News and Politics) share the charts and tables. There’s even a Gef the Mongoose Interview. All of this lends credibility to the page. Then, suddenly 24 Keys start taking bets on the election through their website. But this website looks a bit suspect? The odds are mis-stated such as 25/1 when it is actually 1/25 to tempt people to have a bet thinking it is bet £1 to win £25 when actually it is the other way around. There’s no registration details. It isn’t registered with the IOM Financial Supervision Commission, or anywhere else. It has no built in protection against underage gamblers using it. There are no “Know Your Customer” controls or identity checks to prevent money laundering. There are no controls to help problem gamblers. There is no guarantee that anyone placing bets will ever see that money again win or lose. The website is not even based on the Isle of Man. It can be traced as far as Germany and then the trail goes cold. I have today spoken with the Isle of Man constabulary financial crime unit who have investigated as far as they can and determined that the site is almost certainly a scam aimed at parting people from their money and that the so called algorithms are probably part of the scam to influence people to bet a certain way. They have tried to contact the site operator without success and they believe the operator is almost certainly not on the Isle of Man and is simply taking advantage of a local event as an illegal money making activity. Unfortunately because the site is bot based on the Isle of Man it does not fall under Manx jurisdiction so there is nothing they can do to stop it. They may be able to act further if people have lost money. In short folks, be careful what you believe on the internet and particularly for political candidates take care what you are lending credibility too as I am sure supporting unregulated betting sites is not something you want to be associated with.” 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 I'd assumed that these 'bets' weren't actually bets - just people giving their own predictions rather than laying down any money. But they do actually take card payments. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramseyboi Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said: I'd assumed that these 'bets' weren't actually bets - just people giving their own predictions rather than laying down any money. But they do actually take card payments. Same. I had assumed it was a “just for fun” thing, especially given some of the crazy odds but tried it and it did try and take me to a payment page. Struggling to believe someone off island has gone to that much effort though. Plus most (all but two, maybe three) of the predictions look reasonable to me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleepyJoe Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 Must be someone on island with some insight into betting & gaming Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Raekwon Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 1 minute ago, SleepyJoe said: Must be someone on island with some insight into betting & gaming And a link to Germany 😆 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleepyJoe Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 Reykjavik is in Iceland IP is located in California Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chef Raekwon Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, SleepyJoe said: Reykjavik is in Iceland IP is located in California Yes I know where Reykjavik is thanks pal. The report posted above states its been traced back as far as Germany. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramseyboi Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Chef Raekwon said: Yes I know where Reykjavik is thanks pal. The report posted above states its been traced back as far as Germany. Can’t they just ask the guy Gef interviewed? Surely an international scam artist wouldn’t go to this effort including sitting down for an interview with his face voice and name in it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ham_N_Eggs Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 23 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said: Can’t they just ask the guy Gef interviewed? Surely an international scam artist wouldn’t go to this effort including sitting down for an interview with his face voice and name in it? Maybe the site has been hacked? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleepyJoe Posted September 14, 2021 Share Posted September 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Chef Raekwon said: Yes I know where Reykjavik is thanks pal. The report posted above states its been traced back as far as Germany. One app show a server presence in Germany - is that a link? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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