UK General Election

[Cambon]

I think May called the election to get a bigger majority, perhaps over 50% in order to be able to push through votes and policy. 

 

[P.K.]

1 hour ago, Cambon said:

I think May called the election to get a bigger majority, perhaps over 50% in order to be able to push through votes and policy. 

 

So this is the Mrs May who told the scottish munchkin that she couldn't have a referendum because of the distraction and so forth and they didn't know what kind of a deal they would get from the EU etc etc and then she calls a General Election? A tory leader shamelessly going back on their previous rationale! Well, who would have thought it?

The UK General Election is being called by May because she thinks the UK needs "stability" and "certainty" and similar which is complete and utter BS because no-one knows how the next 2 years will pan out FFS!

Nah, I think my previous is nearer the mark:

 

5 hours ago, P.K. said:

My sentiments exactly. Corbyn has an enormous aura of "Kinnochio Effect" about him and is only leader because lots of youngsters joined the Labour Party. Probably because they feel they have no voice or future under the status quo is my guess.

I also get the impression that it's all about party politics more than anything else. Because the EU referendum has polarised the UK probably as much as Thatcher did.

My take is that the EU have made it VERY clear that the UK is in for a very tough time. For example there will be no negotiations before the UK agree to the divorce settlement of some £50 to £60 billion - and that's just for starters. So, in theory at any rate, the UK would have exited the EU by March 2019. Possibly with a really shit deal (a la Voltaire) or no deal at all that would have somewhat coloured the election campaigns shall we say that would have kicked off in about 9 months later or less.

Now the UK electorate have VERY short memories - but not that short!

So I take this snap election as a sign that they think the departure from the EU is going to be very painful. So they are maxing out the time between leaving the EU and the next General Election in the hope that things would have become, well, better over the three years that will have passed since the break.

Incidentally, I don't think I'm any more cynical that the tory leadership....

 

[Tarne]

I would laugh heartily if Labour got in, as we all know how reliable polls are! 

[Chinahand]

They aren't going to sort out Brexit prior to 2020.  Having an election while it is all up in the air will make it very difficult to keep a uniform negotiated position.

This way they can keep a single team in place for an additional 3 years if it is necessary to finalize a deal from a temporary one put in place because it couldn't all be sorted out in the 2 year Brexit process.

[woolley]

This is a situation from where literally anything could happen.

 

There are numerous scenarios and we could even finish up with a “Bobby Ewing stepping out of the shower moment” whereby on  23rd June this year, we are right back where we started on 23^rd June last year with nothing resolved. Not likely, but at least possible, I believe. Theresa May is a wily vixen, but if we have learned anything in recent times it is to expect the unexpected. I predict that Labour will hold their own share of the vote better than expected because they will regain some traditional support drifting back from a UKIP in disarray and feeling they have nowhere else to go. At the same time they will lose a proportion of their “remain” voters to the LibDems despite the latter’s lacklustre leadership and weak "all things to all men" policies.

The LibDems will play hard on “shaping Brexit” within the EU single market, which is actually a contradiction in terms, but what they really want is to reset the entire process and deliver the country to Brussels on a plate and tied with a yellow bow. The real danger to May is that the LibDems take “remain” voter share from the Tories in the manner of Goldsmith’s loss at the Richmond Park by election. No doubt the Central Office team have done their sums, but I don’t think that this potential effect should be underestimated. It could be a widespread phenomenon in many Tory “remain” constituencies with Brexiteer MPs, I feel.

North of the border it is something of a poison chalice for the SNP. They can hardly better their showing in 2015, so really the only way is down for them. Any reduction will inevitably be portrayed as the independence movement having passed its high water mark. The UK parties are sure to tar the Nats with the “out of the UK and out of the EU” abyss, and that must logically prosper to some extent. Probably worse news for Sturgeon and Salmond than anyone else.

We must hope that Theresa May has read this correctly, because truly, anything could happen. I don’t think it’s a given that she gets a substantially larger majority. The outcome might not be too much different from the status quo, with perhaps a few more LibDems and a few less SNPs, although any victory with an increased workable majority would at least give her a personal mandate for her agenda.

She wouldn’t be the first person to miscalculate the public mood when calling an election however, although I suppose it’s better than bottling it as Gordon Brown did, only to go straight into a downward spiral and lose a couple of years later. The last person who went to the country on a “Who rules Britain?” ticket was Ted Heath. And the deafening answer that came back, even in the teeth of 70s trade union militancy, was “Well certainly not you!”

 

[JackCarter]

Yeah, fuck off Woolley. She's dead.

 

 

[woolley]

57 minutes ago, Tarne said:

I would laugh heartily if Labour got in, as we all know how reliable polls are! 

And even more heartily when he goes on to win his third term in 2027 at the helm of the new British Empire...............

Well, Tarne. You started it.

[Chinahand]

So what are the bets on the size of the Tory majority?

I'm going for less than 30.

Any other offers?

[woolley]

42

[Tarne]

I think this sums it up

https://i.imgur.com/v7Td9kd.jpg

[Albert Tatlock]

I'm thinking it'll be less than 30, but that there is a chance of another coalition again,, given this is the 'Brexit election'. I can see even the SNP losing a few seats this time too. That 'remain' types might be more likely to vote tactically than 'leave' types. That even some leavers would do that in terms of a soft versus hard Brexit.

She'll likely win it all, or we'll end up with chaos. Given the way the world has gone these past few years, with Brexit, Trump etc. chaos seems a good bet these days.

[woody2]

already talk of a labour,libdum and snp coalition.........

[Albert Tatlock]

I think it's all really down to how many seats labour lose under Corbin. And, I think he'll do worse than Foot and others, and be gone by xmas. That's the real Tory gamble for calling this now.

[woody2]

the local elections should give a clue in a few weeks.....

 

 

interesting that 70% are now in favour of exit......

[Andy Onchan]

59 minutes ago, woody2 said:

interesting that 70% are now in favour of exit......

That's probably because most people now realise there's no choice.